# A group conducted a poll of 20

A group conducted a poll of

2013

likely voters just prior to an election. The results of the survey indicated that candidate A would receive

48​%

of the popular vote and candidate B would receive

46​%

of the popular vote. The margin of error was reported to be

3​%.

The group reported that the race was too close to call. Use the concept of a confidence interval to explain what this means.

What does it mean to say the race was too close to​ call?

A.

The margin of error suggests candidate A may receive between

45​%

and

51​%

of the popular vote and candidate B may receive between

43​%

and

49​%

of the popular vote. Because the poll estimates overlap when accounting for margin of​ error, the poll cannot predict the winner.

B.

Since the estimated proportions depend on the level of​ confidence, the candidate predicted to receive the greater percentage of the popular vote changes for different levels of​ confidence, so the poll cannot predict the winner.

C.

Since the difference between the percentages of the popular vote for the candidates is less than the

6​%

of voters that are​ undecided, the poll cannot predict the winner.

D.

Since the poll results do not show that one of the candidates has more than​ 50% of the popular​ vote, the poll cannot predict the winner.

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