A group conducted a poll of 20

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A group conducted a poll of

2013

likely voters just prior to an election. The results of the survey indicated that candidate A would receive

48%

of the popular vote and candidate B would receive

46%

of the popular vote. The margin of error was reported to be

3%.

The group reported that the race was too close to call. Use the concept of a confidence interval to explain what this means.

What does it mean to say the race was too close to call?

The margin of error suggests candidate A may receive between

45%

and

51%

of the popular vote and candidate B may receive between

43%

and

49%

of the popular vote. Because the poll estimates overlap when accounting for margin of error, the poll cannot predict the winner.

Since the estimated proportions depend on the level of confidence, the candidate predicted to receive the greater percentage of the popular vote changes for different levels of confidence, so the poll cannot predict the winner.

Since the difference between the percentages of the popular vote for the candidates is less than the

of voters that are undecided, the poll cannot predict the winner.

Since the poll results do not show that one of the candidates has more than 50% of the popular vote, the poll cannot predict the winner.

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