. Do the 2 month SMA forecast

Sales of Fat Lips Burgers for 2012 are shown in the table below.

1. Do the 2 month SMA forecast

2. Do 2 month WMA forecast using the information below WMA – 2: last month, 1 – last 2 months

3. For the month of January 2012, the forecast was 438. Do the EMA forecast with the smoothing constant = 0.3. What is the forecast for Jan 2013?

4. Compare the forecasts above using MAD, MSE and MAPE. Which forecast method gives the least errors?

Month  Actual Sales  Forecast
Jan 2012 438  
Feb 420  
March 414  
Apr 318  
May 306  
June 240  
July  240  
Aug  216  
Sep 198  
Oct  225  
Nov  270  
Dec 315  
Jan 2013  

Dayang sells 5 kg bags of fertilizer to local farmers in Tg Karang. The sales data for the past 11 months is shown below.

Month  Demand (10s of bags) 
1 4
2 6
3 4
4 5
5 10
6 8
7 7
8 9
9 12
10 14
11 15

1. Find the forecast for the month 12 using the methods below:

a. Simple 4 month moving average (SMA)
b. Weighted Moving Average WMA (4 months) , with latest month weight = 4, 2 months ago weight = 3, 3 months ago weight = 2, 4 months ago weight = 1
c. EMA with α=0.3, month 1 forecast = 4

2. Use MAD, MAPE and MSE to find out which forecast is the most accurate

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