# . Do the 2 month SMA forecast

QUESTION 1
Sales of Fat Lips Burgers for 2012 are shown in the table below.

1. Do the 2 month SMA forecast

2. Do 2 month WMA forecast using the information below WMA – 2: last month, 1 – last 2 months

3. For the month of January 2012, the forecast was 438. Do the EMA forecast with the smoothing constant = 0.3. What is the forecast for Jan 2013?

4. Compare the forecasts above using MAD, MSE and MAPE. Which forecast method gives the least errors?

 Month Actual Sales Forecast Jan 2012 438 Feb 420 March 414 Apr 318 May 306 June 240 July 240 Aug 216 Sep 198 Oct 225 Nov 270 Dec 315 Jan 2013 –

QUESTION 2
Dayang sells 5 kg bags of fertilizer to local farmers in Tg Karang. The sales data for the past 11 months is shown below.

 Month Demand (10s of bags) 1 4 2 6 3 4 4 5 5 10 6 8 7 7 8 9 9 12 10 14 11 15

1. Find the forecast for the month 12 using the methods below:

a. Simple 4 month moving average (SMA)
b. Weighted Moving Average WMA (4 months) , with latest month weight = 4, 2 months ago weight = 3, 3 months ago weight = 2, 4 months ago weight = 1
c. EMA with α=0.3, month 1 forecast = 4

2. Use MAD, MAPE and MSE to find out which forecast is the most accurate

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