The vintage Restaurant is located on Captiva Island, a resort community located near Fort Meyers, Florida. The restaurant, which is owned and operated by Karen Payne, has just completed its third year of operation. During this time, Karen sought to establish a reputation for the restaurant as a high-quality dining establishment that specializes in fresh seafood. The efforts made by Karen and her staff have proved successful, and her restaurant has become one of the best and fastest-growing restaurants on the island.

Karen has just concluded that to plan better for the growth of the restaurant in the future, it is necessary to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales by the month for up to 1 year in advance. Karen has the following data available on the total food and beverage sales that were realized during the previous 3 years of operation.

Food and Beverage Sales for the Vintage Restaurant ($1000s)

Month First Year Second Year Third Year
January 242 263 282
February 235 238 255
March 232 247 265
April 178 193 205
May 184 193 210
June 140 149 160
July 145 157 166
August 152 161 174
September 110 122 126
November 130 130 148
December 206 230 235

Managerial Report

Perform an analysis of the sales data for the Vintage Restaurant. Prepare a report for Karen that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include information on the following:
1. A graph of the time series. Comment on the underlying pattern in the time series. 2. Using the dummy variable approach, forecast sales for January through December of the fourth year.
3.Assume that January sales for the fourth year turn out to be $295,000. What was your forecast error? If this is a large error, Karen may be puzzled about the difference between your forecast and the actual sales value. What can you do to resolve her uncertainty in the forecasting procedure?